S8/10Geopolitical
Russia's petrol crisis worsens as citizens feel the bite of Moscow's war in Ukraine
A third of Russia's refining capacity has been knocked out by Ukrainian drone attacks, causing petrol shortages across more than half of Russia's regions.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 67% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days