S8/10Geopolitical
Israel and Iran halt counterstrikes
Donald Trump urges both sides to ‘stop shooting’ as he pursues ceasefire extension
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 72% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Reports of heightened activity on Israeli and Iranian military networks. 2) Increased public statements from both sides threatening further action if their demands aren't met. Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 21% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Reports of heightened activity on Israeli and Iranian military networks. 2) Increased public statements from both sides threatening further action if their demands aren't met. Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 8% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Reports of heightened activity on Israeli and Iranian military networks. 2) Increased public statements from both sides threatening further action if their demands aren't met. Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days
Horizon: 7–14 days