S8/10Geopolitical
US strikes on Iran test fragile ceasefire
The US has struck Iran for the first time since the two sides reached a Memorandum of Understanding on June 17.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 50% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days