S6/10Geopolitical
Bulgaria demands removal of two names from EU sanctions list in exchange for backing 21st package
Bulgaria will oppose the European Union's proposed 21st package of sanctions against Russia unless two names are removed from the list: Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church and Vagit Alekperov, one of the heads of Lukoil's Bulgarian business.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 46% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days