S8/10Geopolitical

Iranian delegation walks out of talks with US over Trump’s threats — TV

US President wrote on his Truth Social platform earlier that the United States may deliver more strikes against Iran over the situation in Lebanon

21 Jun 2026, 19:37 UTCSource: TASS EnglishOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация71% model probability

US President's threats escalate to concrete action (e.g., targeted airstrikes) within 7 days, followed by Iranian response with potential retaliatory strikes against US interests in the region. This could lead to increased regional tensions and heightened risk of conflict escalation. Confirmation Indicators: Public statements from US officials confirming military actions against Iran, credible reports of missile launches or other hostile ac

Confirmation indicators

  • Public statements from US officials confirming military actions against Iran, credible reports of missile launches or other hostile ac
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво21% model probability

US President's threats escalate to concrete action (e.g., targeted airstrikes) within 7 days, followed by Iranian response with potential retaliatory strikes against US interests in the region. This could lead to increased regional tensions and heightened risk of conflict escalation. Confirmation Indicators: Public statements from US officials confirming military actions against Iran, credible reports of missile launches or other hostile ac

Confirmation indicators

  • Public statements from US officials confirming military actions against Iran, credible reports of missile launches or other hostile ac
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация8% model probability

US President's threats escalate to concrete action (e.g., targeted airstrikes) within 7 days, followed by Iranian response with potential retaliatory strikes against US interests in the region. This could lead to increased regional tensions and heightened risk of conflict escalation. Confirmation Indicators: Public statements from US officials confirming military actions against Iran, credible reports of missile launches or other hostile ac

Confirmation indicators

  • Public statements from US officials confirming military actions against Iran, credible reports of missile launches or other hostile ac
Horizon: 7–30 days