Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran launches missiles at Israel, followed by retaliatory strikes from Israel. Israel uses air power and potentially ground-based missile systems to target Iranian military facilities. The conflict escalates into a wider regional conflict, with potential involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack triggers a diplomatic response from both sides, with international pressure for de-escalation. Israel and Iran engage in high-level negotiations, potentially mediated by the UN or other international bodies. The ceasefire (85% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran launches missiles at Israel, followed by retaliatory strikes from Israel. Israel uses air power and potentially ground-based missile systems to target Iranian military facilities. The conflict escalates into a wider regional conflict, with potential involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack triggers a diplomatic response from both sides, with international pressure for de-escalation. Israel and Iran engage in high-level negotiations, potentially mediated by the UN or other international bodies. The ceasefire (11% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran launches missiles at Israel, followed by retaliatory strikes from Israel. Israel uses air power and potentially ground-based missile systems to target Iranian military facilities. The conflict escalates into a wider regional conflict, with potential involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The attack triggers a diplomatic response from both sides, with international pressure for de-escalation. Israel and Iran engage in high-level negotiations, potentially mediated by the UN or other international bodies. The ceasefire (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Iran launches missiles at Israel in the first such bombardment since a ceasefire in April

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators