S8/10Geopolitical

Iran set to return to mainstream oil market as US temporarily waives sanctions

As 60 days of peace negotiations between the US and Iran continue, Tehran appears to have won significant concessions from Washington. Chief among those is the waiving of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. US sanctions have been in place for decades, cutting Iran off from mainstream global oil markets and forcing it to sell its oil to China at discount rates. The US says the other side of the deal is that Iran will allow international inspectors access to its nuclear program - Tehran though says it has made no such commitment.

23 Jun 2026, 10:01 UTCSource: France24Original source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация67% model probability

Сценарий A (Эскалация) - 50% В случае эскалации ситуация в Иране может обостриться из-за краткосрочного отказа США от waiversа sanctions на экспорт нефти. Это может привести к увеличению напряженности между США и Ираном, что потенциально приведет к военным действиям или эскалации конфликта в регионе.

Confirmation indicators

  • Сокращение дипломатических отношений между США и Ираном Увеличение военных учений в регионе Погоня за иранскими военными уцелевшими офицерами Time horizo
Horizon: 7–30 days