Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran and Israel's rhetoric escalates rapidly, with both sides deploying advanced military capabilities in response to the initial missile strikes. Within 7 days, a direct confrontation between Israeli and Iranian forces is likely. This could involve a limited air campaign by Israel targeting Iranian military infrastructure and facilities, followed by retaliatory strikes from Iran using their ballistic missiles. The escalation could trigger regional tensions with other countries like Lebanon and Syria potentially becoming involved in the conflict. * Increased activity of Israeli military forces near the Syrian border. * Confirmation of Iranian missile launches targeting Israel or its allies. * Public statements by both Iran and Israel directly threatening further action, including the use of nucle (85% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran and Israel's rhetoric escalates rapidly, with both sides deploying advanced military capabilities in response to the initial missile strikes. Within 7 days, a direct confrontation between Israeli and Iranian forces is likely. This could involve a limited air campaign by Israel targeting Iranian military infrastructure and facilities, followed by retaliatory strikes from Iran using their ballistic missiles. The escalation could trigger regional tensions with other countries like Lebanon and Syria potentially becoming involved in the conflict. * Increased activity of Israeli military forces near the Syrian border. * Confirmation of Iranian missile launches targeting Israel or its allies. * Public statements by both Iran and Israel directly threatening further action, including the use of nucle (11% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran and Israel's rhetoric escalates rapidly, with both sides deploying advanced military capabilities in response to the initial missile strikes. Within 7 days, a direct confrontation between Israeli and Iranian forces is likely. This could involve a limited air campaign by Israel targeting Iranian military infrastructure and facilities, followed by retaliatory strikes from Iran using their ballistic missiles. The escalation could trigger regional tensions with other countries like Lebanon and Syria potentially becoming involved in the conflict. * Increased activity of Israeli military forces near the Syrian border. * Confirmation of Iranian missile launches targeting Israel or its allies. * Public statements by both Iran and Israel directly threatening further action, including the use of nucle (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Iran and Israel trade threats after Tehran launches missiles

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators