S6/10Geopolitical
Despite agreement with Israel, situation in Lebanon remains unchanged
Despite a US-sponsored agreement paving the way for peace between Lebanon and Israel, the actual situation on the ground is unchanged. Israel continues to occupy southern Lebanon, and launched targeted strikes there over the weekend. Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the occupied area and vowed his army will not withdraw as long as Hezbollah is still there.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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