S9/10Geopolitical
MAIA: Young: Real Winner from OPEC+ Hike is Russia
Oil prices surged after fresh fighting between Iran & Israel which has threatened a fragile ceasefire in the region. The latest escalation is renewing concerns over energy supplies and the future of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Karen Young, Senior Research Scholar for the Center on Global Energy Policy, at Columbia University spoke to Bloomberg’s Abeer Abu Omar on Horizons Middle East and Africa on the path ahead for the OPEC+ group. (Source: Bloomberg)
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 83% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure.
- ◆Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side.
- ◆Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume.
- ◆Time Horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 13% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure.
- ◆Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side.
- ◆Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume.
- ◆Time Horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure.
- ◆Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side.
- ◆Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume.
- ◆Time Horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–14 days