S8/10Geopolitical
In Lebanon, temporary cemeteries house the dead exiled by the war
As Israel continue their campaign to eradicate Hezbollah, the death toll of Israeli strikes in Lebanon now stands at 3,613 with more than 11 thousand wounded. In some areas, it is now too dangerous to bury the dead. Our reporters Antonia Kerrigan and Elena Volochine travelled to Saïda, where a cemetery has been set up to house the dead in exile for now.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 78% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased reports of targeted strikes on Hezbollah facilities within Lebanon by Israeli forces.
- ◆Escalation of Hezbollah attacks targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure, leading to significant casualties.
- ◆Diplomatic efforts fail to de
- ◆escalate the conflict, with international bodies calling for a ceasefire.
- ◆Time Horizon: 14 days to 3 weeks
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 16% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased reports of targeted strikes on Hezbollah facilities within Lebanon by Israeli forces.
- ◆Escalation of Hezbollah attacks targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure, leading to significant casualties.
- ◆Diplomatic efforts fail to de
- ◆escalate the conflict, with international bodies calling for a ceasefire.
- ◆Time Horizon: 14 days to 3 weeks
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased reports of targeted strikes on Hezbollah facilities within Lebanon by Israeli forces.
- ◆Escalation of Hezbollah attacks targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure, leading to significant casualties.
- ◆Diplomatic efforts fail to de
- ◆escalate the conflict, with international bodies calling for a ceasefire.
- ◆Time Horizon: 14 days to 3 weeks
Horizon: 7–30 days