S8/10Geopolitical

Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland

Three days into the Iran war, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the quiet part out loud: The Revolutionary Guard’s Qods Force has long carried out plots around the world and now intended to deploy those capabilities against the U.S. homeland. The United States, a Qods Force statement carried on Iranian television warned, “will no longer be safe” as the Qods Force targets Americans within the homeland and abroad. “The enemy should know that their happy days are over and they will no longer be safe anywhere in the world, not even in their own homes.” U.S. authorities went on a nationwide high alert The post Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland appeared first on War on the Rocks .

06 May 2026, 07:15 UTCSource: War on the RocksOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация76% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from both sides regarding preemptive strikes; The United Nations Security Council holds em
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво18% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from both sides regarding preemptive strikes; The United Nations Security Council holds em
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация7% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from both sides regarding preemptive strikes; The United Nations Security Council holds em
Horizon: 7–30 days