S9/10Geopolitical
Israel launches retaliatory air strikes on Iran
Assault tests 2-month ceasefire and follows Tehran’s earlier launch of ballistic missiles
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 85% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Increased media reports of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran; 2) Confirmation of Iranian ballistic missile tests within a week following the initial strike.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 11% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Increased media reports of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran; 2) Confirmation of Iranian ballistic missile tests within a week following the initial strike.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Increased media reports of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran; 2) Confirmation of Iranian ballistic missile tests within a week following the initial strike.
Horizon: 7–30 days