S9/10Geopolitical
Iran threatens even more massive strikes if Israel retaliates — military command
Israel's state broadcaster Kan earlier stated that the country intended to respond to missile strikes from Iranian territory
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 89% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Israel's retaliatory strike against Iranian targets confirmed by official statements from the government. Reports of significant damage to Israeli infrastructure (e.g., power outages). Iran acknowledges the strikes and announces further retaliation with increased precision targeting.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 7% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Israel's retaliatory strike against Iranian targets confirmed by official statements from the government. Reports of significant damage to Israeli infrastructure (e.g., power outages). Iran acknowledges the strikes and announces further retaliation with increased precision targeting.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Israel's retaliatory strike against Iranian targets confirmed by official statements from the government. Reports of significant damage to Israeli infrastructure (e.g., power outages). Iran acknowledges the strikes and announces further retaliation with increased precision targeting.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days