S9/10Geopolitical
Iran war live: Trump urges restraint after Iranian missile attack on Israel
Escalation comes after Israel attacked Lebanon's capital, Beirut, killing at least two people and wounding 20.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 90% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Confirmation of Iranian missile strikes against Israeli targets (within 24 hours)
- ◆Public statements from both sides threatening further action, including military escalation.
- ◆US deployment of additional troops to the region within 72 hours.
Horizon: 7–21 days
B
Status quo— 6% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Confirmation of Iranian missile strikes against Israeli targets (within 24 hours)
- ◆Public statements from both sides threatening further action, including military escalation.
- ◆US deployment of additional troops to the region within 72 hours.
Horizon: 7–21 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Confirmation of Iranian missile strikes against Israeli targets (within 24 hours)
- ◆Public statements from both sides threatening further action, including military escalation.
- ◆US deployment of additional troops to the region within 72 hours.
Horizon: 7–21 days