S9/10Geopolitical
Oil Steady as Israel and Iran Halt Hostilities That Risked Talks
Oil steadied after Israel and Iran agreed to end attacks against each other following an escalation of violence that threatened to derail efforts to end the war in the Middle East.
Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 83% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A significant escalation of violence between Israel and Iran, including direct military action or the use of long
- ◆range missiles, is confirmed by reputable news sources. A sharp increase in regional tensions measured through diplomatic disputes or increased sanctions imposed on both countries.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 13% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A significant escalation of violence between Israel and Iran, including direct military action or the use of long
- ◆range missiles, is confirmed by reputable news sources. A sharp increase in regional tensions measured through diplomatic disputes or increased sanctions imposed on both countries.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A significant escalation of violence between Israel and Iran, including direct military action or the use of long
- ◆range missiles, is confirmed by reputable news sources. A sharp increase in regional tensions measured through diplomatic disputes or increased sanctions imposed on both countries.
Horizon: 7–30 days