Axelrod's Oracle
S8/10Geopolitical

Iran war live: Trump warns Netanyahu as Israel, Tehran halt fighting

A total of 3,637 people have been killed in Israeli strikes since March and 11,188 wounded, the Health Ministry said.

09 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTCSource: Al JazeeraOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 80% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Increased use of long
  • ◆range missiles by Israel in Gaza, targeting Iranian
  • ◆backed groups.
  • ◆US Treasury sanctions on Israeli defense companies for alleged human rights violations against Palestinians.
  • ◆Iran launches retaliatory cyberattacks on major Israeli financial institutions and critical infrastructure.
  • ◆Diplomatic efforts fail to de
  • ◆escalate the situation.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 14% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Increased use of long
  • ◆range missiles by Israel in Gaza, targeting Iranian
  • ◆backed groups.
  • ◆US Treasury sanctions on Israeli defense companies for alleged human rights violations against Palestinians.
  • ◆Iran launches retaliatory cyberattacks on major Israeli financial institutions and critical infrastructure.
  • ◆Diplomatic efforts fail to de
  • ◆escalate the situation.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • ◆Increased use of long
  • ◆range missiles by Israel in Gaza, targeting Iranian
  • ◆backed groups.
  • ◆US Treasury sanctions on Israeli defense companies for alleged human rights violations against Palestinians.
  • ◆Iran launches retaliatory cyberattacks on major Israeli financial institutions and critical infrastructure.
  • ◆Diplomatic efforts fail to de
  • ◆escalate the situation.
Horizon: 7–30 days