Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: Strait of Hormuz closure leads to increased aluminum demand from China and India, triggering further price spikes and hoarding by consumers and industrial users. This exacerbates supply chain bottlenecks, leading to production delays in aluminum-intensive industries like aerospace and automotive. - Confirmation indicators: Sharp increase in aluminum spot prices beyond $30/tonne, followed by a significant rise in global aluminum demand indices. - Time horizon: 14 days - 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: The market gradually adapts to the Strait of Hormuz closure and tightens supply chains, leading to increased transparency and collaboration amongst stakeholders. The aluminum industry implements alternative routes for shipping and sourcing, mitigating immediate price volatility. - Conf (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: Strait of Hormuz closure leads to increased aluminum demand from China and India, triggering further price spikes and hoarding by consumers and industrial users. This exacerbates supply chain bottlenecks, leading to production delays in aluminum-intensive industries like aerospace and automotive. - Confirmation indicators: Sharp increase in aluminum spot prices beyond $30/tonne, followed by a significant rise in global aluminum demand indices. - Time horizon: 14 days - 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: The market gradually adapts to the Strait of Hormuz closure and tightens supply chains, leading to increased transparency and collaboration amongst stakeholders. The aluminum industry implements alternative routes for shipping and sourcing, mitigating immediate price volatility. - Conf (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% - Chain: Strait of Hormuz closure leads to increased aluminum demand from China and India, triggering further price spikes and hoarding by consumers and industrial users. This exacerbates supply chain bottlenecks, leading to production delays in aluminum-intensive industries like aerospace and automotive. - Confirmation indicators: Sharp increase in aluminum spot prices beyond $30/tonne, followed by a significant rise in global aluminum demand indices. - Time horizon: 14 days - 2 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% - Chain: The market gradually adapts to the Strait of Hormuz closure and tightens supply chains, leading to increased transparency and collaboration amongst stakeholders. The aluminum industry implements alternative routes for shipping and sourcing, mitigating immediate price volatility. - Conf (20% model probability, not a guarantee)