S9/10Geopolitical

US seeks verifiable nuclear agreement with Iran, Vance says

US seeks verifiable nuclear agreement with Iran, Vance says US Vice President JD Vance said the success of any future agreement with Iran would depend not on "commitments made on paper" but on the ability to verify Tehran's compliance over time. Speaking to Fox News, Vance said the United States would continue pursuing negotiations because doing so "serves American interests" and was a key objective of the administration. Vance said he believes a long-term agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme is achievable, mirroring President Donald Trump's view that diplomacy remains the best path forward. Iran appears interested in ending the conflict and is placing serious proposals on the negotiating table, he said, adding that neither side should rely on trust alone.

09 Jun 2026, 00:40 UTCSource: Middle East EyeOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation72% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • 1) Public statements from Iranian officials threatening further action against US interests. 2) Increased activity by proxy groups in conflict zones, with documented incidents of violence or attacks attributed to their involvement. 3) The US imposing new sanctions on specific Iranian entities or individuals linked to t
  • Time Horizon: 10
Horizon: 10–14 days
B
Status quo20% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • 1) Public statements from Iranian officials threatening further action against US interests. 2) Increased activity by proxy groups in conflict zones, with documented incidents of violence or attacks attributed to their involvement. 3) The US imposing new sanctions on specific Iranian entities or individuals linked to t
  • Time Horizon: 10
Horizon: 10–14 days
C
De-escalation8% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • 1) Public statements from Iranian officials threatening further action against US interests. 2) Increased activity by proxy groups in conflict zones, with documented incidents of violence or attacks attributed to their involvement. 3) The US imposing new sanctions on specific Iranian entities or individuals linked to t
  • Time Horizon: 10
Horizon: 10–14 days