Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 7-10 days, increased tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a series of targeted drone strikes against Iranian military installations in the Khuzestan province. This escalation results in a significant increase in regional military activity, raising concerns about potential conflicts with neighboring countries. 1. Increased Israeli military presence along the Gaza-Israel border. 2. Reports of heightened Iranian military readiness along the Iraq-Iran border. 3. A statement from the Iranian government condemning recent attacks as "a declaration of war". Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Over the next 14-21 days, a lull in hostilities between Iran and Israel follows the recent attacks, with both sides engaging in diplomatic effort (80% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 7-10 days, increased tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a series of targeted drone strikes against Iranian military installations in the Khuzestan province. This escalation results in a significant increase in regional military activity, raising concerns about potential conflicts with neighboring countries. 1. Increased Israeli military presence along the Gaza-Israel border. 2. Reports of heightened Iranian military readiness along the Iraq-Iran border. 3. A statement from the Iranian government condemning recent attacks as "a declaration of war". Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Over the next 14-21 days, a lull in hostilities between Iran and Israel follows the recent attacks, with both sides engaging in diplomatic effort (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 7-10 days, increased tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a series of targeted drone strikes against Iranian military installations in the Khuzestan province. This escalation results in a significant increase in regional military activity, raising concerns about potential conflicts with neighboring countries. 1. Increased Israeli military presence along the Gaza-Israel border. 2. Reports of heightened Iranian military readiness along the Iraq-Iran border. 3. A statement from the Iranian government condemning recent attacks as "a declaration of war". Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Over the next 14-21 days, a lull in hostilities between Iran and Israel follows the recent attacks, with both sides engaging in diplomatic effort (5% model probability, not a guarantee)

Emergency teams mobilised across Iran following attacks

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators