Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates attacks in Kharkiv region, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing rhetoric against Ukraine's resistance. This leads to a renewed NATO military presence in Eastern Europe, with increased deployments of troops and weapons. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of heightened Russian military activity near the border of Ukraine, including troop movements and increased air patrols. A surge in international condemnation of Russia's actions, leading to sanctions from various countries. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The attack on Kharkiv region triggers diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. However, negotiations stall due to differing demands and a lack of trust. This leads to continued tension in the region, with inc (80% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates attacks in Kharkiv region, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing rhetoric against Ukraine's resistance. This leads to a renewed NATO military presence in Eastern Europe, with increased deployments of troops and weapons. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of heightened Russian military activity near the border of Ukraine, including troop movements and increased air patrols. A surge in international condemnation of Russia's actions, leading to sanctions from various countries. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The attack on Kharkiv region triggers diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. However, negotiations stall due to differing demands and a lack of trust. This leads to continued tension in the region, with inc (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates attacks in Kharkiv region, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing rhetoric against Ukraine's resistance. This leads to a renewed NATO military presence in Eastern Europe, with increased deployments of troops and weapons. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of heightened Russian military activity near the border of Ukraine, including troop movements and increased air patrols. A surge in international condemnation of Russia's actions, leading to sanctions from various countries. * Time horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The attack on Kharkiv region triggers diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine. However, negotiations stall due to differing demands and a lack of trust. This leads to continued tension in the region, with inc (5% model probability, not a guarantee)