Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel conducts limited pre-emptive strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in response to escalating tensions and perceived lack of US action. This triggers a retaliatory strike from Iran, targeting Israel's military infrastructure. The conflict escalates into a wider regional war involving proxy forces and potentially Saudi Arabia, with increased international involvement. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by immediate Iranian retaliation against Israeli targets. Public statements from both sides confirming escalation and the potential for a broader conflict. * Time horizon: Days to weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US engages in extensive diplomatic efforts with Iran, aiming to reach an agreement on nuclear program (67% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel conducts limited pre-emptive strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in response to escalating tensions and perceived lack of US action. This triggers a retaliatory strike from Iran, targeting Israel's military infrastructure. The conflict escalates into a wider regional war involving proxy forces and potentially Saudi Arabia, with increased international involvement. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by immediate Iranian retaliation against Israeli targets. Public statements from both sides confirming escalation and the potential for a broader conflict. * Time horizon: Days to weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US engages in extensive diplomatic efforts with Iran, aiming to reach an agreement on nuclear program (24% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel conducts limited pre-emptive strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in response to escalating tensions and perceived lack of US action. This triggers a retaliatory strike from Iran, targeting Israel's military infrastructure. The conflict escalates into a wider regional war involving proxy forces and potentially Saudi Arabia, with increased international involvement. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, followed by immediate Iranian retaliation against Israeli targets. Public statements from both sides confirming escalation and the potential for a broader conflict. * Time horizon: Days to weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US engages in extensive diplomatic efforts with Iran, aiming to reach an agreement on nuclear program (9% model probability, not a guarantee)