S9/10Geopolitical
Lebanese 'stuck between a rock and a hard place' as Israel strikes south of country
Despite Lebanese authorities insisting on the ceasefire, many in Lebanon criticise them for bending the knee to the US. The Hezbollah is also criticised for starting the conflict and siding with Iran, a decision that has impacted almost a third of the country. FRANCE 24's Renée Davis tells us more on the situation in Lebanon.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 81% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased reports of casualties from both sides within 72 hours.
- ◆Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets, resulting in significant damage or loss of life.
- ◆Escalation of diplomatic tensions between Lebanon and Israel, with potential for international involvement.
Horizon: 10–14 days
B
Status quo— 14% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased reports of casualties from both sides within 72 hours.
- ◆Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets, resulting in significant damage or loss of life.
- ◆Escalation of diplomatic tensions between Lebanon and Israel, with potential for international involvement.
Horizon: 10–14 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased reports of casualties from both sides within 72 hours.
- ◆Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets, resulting in significant damage or loss of life.
- ◆Escalation of diplomatic tensions between Lebanon and Israel, with potential for international involvement.
Horizon: 10–14 days