S8/10Geopolitical
Kiev tries to draw Minsk into conflict through strikes on Belarusian buses — Russian MFA
Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik stressed that Ukraine attempts to further destabilize the situation
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 62% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days