Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Israel's military confirms the IRGC's claim, issuing a public statement acknowledging the attack and potentially escalating rhetoric. Iran retaliates with ballistic missile strikes against Israeli targets in the occupied territories or within its air space. This escalation could trigger regional instability, leading to increased tensions between Israel and other countries in the Middle East (e.g., Saudi Arabia). Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: Iran and Israel engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions through backchannel negotiations and public statements. The international community, incl (89% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Israel's military confirms the IRGC's claim, issuing a public statement acknowledging the attack and potentially escalating rhetoric. Iran retaliates with ballistic missile strikes against Israeli targets in the occupied territories or within its air space. This escalation could trigger regional instability, leading to increased tensions between Israel and other countries in the Middle East (e.g., Saudi Arabia). Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: Iran and Israel engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions through backchannel negotiations and public statements. The international community, incl (8% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Israel's military confirms the IRGC's claim, issuing a public statement acknowledging the attack and potentially escalating rhetoric. Iran retaliates with ballistic missile strikes against Israeli targets in the occupied territories or within its air space. This escalation could trigger regional instability, leading to increased tensions between Israel and other countries in the Middle East (e.g., Saudi Arabia). Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: Iran and Israel engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions through backchannel negotiations and public statements. The international community, incl (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

IRGC says Israeli missiles struck targets inside Iran

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators