Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased border tensions between Uganda and DR Congo lead to further outbreaks in both countries. Ugandan health workers, already strained by limited resources, face increased risk of exposure and potential infection due to heightened travel restrictions. This leads to a surge in cases, exceeding the capacity of existing healthcare systems. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of escalating violence along the border, significant increase in Congolese refugees crossing into Uganda, rapid spread of Ebola cases within Ugandan communities. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Ugandan government maintains its current policy and prioritizes containment efforts with limited resources. The outbreak remains localized, but the strain on healthcare systems in both cou (43% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased border tensions between Uganda and DR Congo lead to further outbreaks in both countries. Ugandan health workers, already strained by limited resources, face increased risk of exposure and potential infection due to heightened travel restrictions. This leads to a surge in cases, exceeding the capacity of existing healthcare systems. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of escalating violence along the border, significant increase in Congolese refugees crossing into Uganda, rapid spread of Ebola cases within Ugandan communities. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Ugandan government maintains its current policy and prioritizes containment efforts with limited resources. The outbreak remains localized, but the strain on healthcare systems in both cou (42% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased border tensions between Uganda and DR Congo lead to further outbreaks in both countries. Ugandan health workers, already strained by limited resources, face increased risk of exposure and potential infection due to heightened travel restrictions. This leads to a surge in cases, exceeding the capacity of existing healthcare systems. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of escalating violence along the border, significant increase in Congolese refugees crossing into Uganda, rapid spread of Ebola cases within Ugandan communities. * Time horizon: 30 days to 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The Ugandan government maintains its current policy and prioritizes containment efforts with limited resources. The outbreak remains localized, but the strain on healthcare systems in both cou (16% model probability, not a guarantee)