Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Iranian government issues an immediate response to the Israeli strikes, escalating the conflict with increased missile attacks on Israel's civilian infrastructure and military targets. This escalation could involve a wider range of offensive actions from Iran, including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in Israel, or even a potential ground invasion of Israel by proxy forces. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials publicly acknowledge the attack as retaliation and announce increased military activity near the border with Israel. Satellite imagery reveals significant movement of Iranian military assets towards the Israeli border. * Time horizon: Within 72 hours, escalating tensions could lead to a full-scale conflict between Iran and Israel. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: (89% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Iranian government issues an immediate response to the Israeli strikes, escalating the conflict with increased missile attacks on Israel's civilian infrastructure and military targets. This escalation could involve a wider range of offensive actions from Iran, including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in Israel, or even a potential ground invasion of Israel by proxy forces. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials publicly acknowledge the attack as retaliation and announce increased military activity near the border with Israel. Satellite imagery reveals significant movement of Iranian military assets towards the Israeli border. * Time horizon: Within 72 hours, escalating tensions could lead to a full-scale conflict between Iran and Israel. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: The Iranian government issues an immediate response to the Israeli strikes, escalating the conflict with increased missile attacks on Israel's civilian infrastructure and military targets. This escalation could involve a wider range of offensive actions from Iran, including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in Israel, or even a potential ground invasion of Israel by proxy forces. * Confirmation indicators: Iranian officials publicly acknowledge the attack as retaliation and announce increased military activity near the border with Israel. Satellite imagery reveals significant movement of Iranian military assets towards the Israeli border. * Time horizon: Within 72 hours, escalating tensions could lead to a full-scale conflict between Iran and Israel. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: (4% model probability, not a guarantee)