S6/10Social
Vance believes Russia's offensive capabilities in war with Ukraine approaching zero
The Russians are now in a situation where their offensive operations are achieving almost nothing on the battlefield, while Ukraine's successes are helping to create the conditions needed to end the war.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 34% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Horizon: 7–30 days