Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios in the specified format: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 30 days, if global coffee bean prices continue to rise due to climate change and tariffs imposed by major coffee-exporting countries, coffee chains will raise their prices by an average of £1.20 per cup. This increase will lead to a 10% decrease in demand among Gen Z consumers, who are increasingly opting for more affordable alternatives. * Global coffee bean prices exceed $2.50 per pound * Average UK coffee shop price increases by £0.50 per cup within the next fortnight * Social media platforms report a 15% decline in Gen Z coffee consumption Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% By the end of Q2 2026, the global coffee market will stabilize due to increased production and trade agreements between major coffee-exporting countries. Coff (29% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios in the specified format: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 30 days, if global coffee bean prices continue to rise due to climate change and tariffs imposed by major coffee-exporting countries, coffee chains will raise their prices by an average of £1.20 per cup. This increase will lead to a 10% decrease in demand among Gen Z consumers, who are increasingly opting for more affordable alternatives. * Global coffee bean prices exceed $2.50 per pound * Average UK coffee shop price increases by £0.50 per cup within the next fortnight * Social media platforms report a 15% decline in Gen Z coffee consumption Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% By the end of Q2 2026, the global coffee market will stabilize due to increased production and trade agreements between major coffee-exporting countries. Coff (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios in the specified format: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 30 days, if global coffee bean prices continue to rise due to climate change and tariffs imposed by major coffee-exporting countries, coffee chains will raise their prices by an average of £1.20 per cup. This increase will lead to a 10% decrease in demand among Gen Z consumers, who are increasingly opting for more affordable alternatives. * Global coffee bean prices exceed $2.50 per pound * Average UK coffee shop price increases by £0.50 per cup within the next fortnight * Social media platforms report a 15% decline in Gen Z coffee consumption Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% By the end of Q2 2026, the global coffee market will stabilize due to increased production and trade agreements between major coffee-exporting countries. Coff (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

The £5 coffee that tells a story of global economic turmoil

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators