Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran launches a significant missile attack against Israel's military infrastructure, including airbases and key communication nodes. This act aims to demonstrate its military capabilities and deter further Israeli aggression. The retaliatory response from Israel is swift and decisive, targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially escalating the conflict to a full-scale war. * Timeline: Within 72 hours of Iran's initial attack, Israel launches a series of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. * Events: The United States condemns Iran's actions and imposes sanctions on key Iranian figures, leading to a diplomatic standoff with the US and its allies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Iran launches a limited missile attack against Israel’s (74% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran launches a significant missile attack against Israel's military infrastructure, including airbases and key communication nodes. This act aims to demonstrate its military capabilities and deter further Israeli aggression. The retaliatory response from Israel is swift and decisive, targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially escalating the conflict to a full-scale war. * Timeline: Within 72 hours of Iran's initial attack, Israel launches a series of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. * Events: The United States condemns Iran's actions and imposes sanctions on key Iranian figures, leading to a diplomatic standoff with the US and its allies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Iran launches a limited missile attack against Israel’s (19% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Iran launches a significant missile attack against Israel's military infrastructure, including airbases and key communication nodes. This act aims to demonstrate its military capabilities and deter further Israeli aggression. The retaliatory response from Israel is swift and decisive, targeting Iranian military facilities and potentially escalating the conflict to a full-scale war. * Timeline: Within 72 hours of Iran's initial attack, Israel launches a series of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. * Events: The United States condemns Iran's actions and imposes sanctions on key Iranian figures, leading to a diplomatic standoff with the US and its allies. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Iran launches a limited missile attack against Israel’s (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Iran’s attack on Israel aims to restore deterrence but avoid return to war

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators