S8/10Geopolitical
Death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon exceeds 3,610 — health ministry
At least 20 people died and 82 more were injured after Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon during the past day
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 82% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 13% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Escalation of airstrikes beyond southern Lebanon into northern areas; 2) Confirmation of Hezbollah involvement in retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets; 3) Increased military presence from regional powers like Syria and Iran near the conflict zone.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days