Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% probability Following Israel's attacks on Iranian targets, tensions are expected to escalate rapidly. Within 72 hours, Iran will likely retaliate with a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli cities and infrastructure. This could trigger a broader conflict in the region, potentially involving regional powers like Hezbollah or Turkey. Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased military activity on both sides, including confirmed missile strikes; 2) Official statements from Iranian leaders outlining escalation plans. Time horizon: 7 days to 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% probability Despite the escalating tensions, a fragile de-escalation process will likely continue. Over the next 14 days, diplomatic channels remain open for communication and negotiations between Iran and Israel. However, this co (89% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% probability Following Israel's attacks on Iranian targets, tensions are expected to escalate rapidly. Within 72 hours, Iran will likely retaliate with a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli cities and infrastructure. This could trigger a broader conflict in the region, potentially involving regional powers like Hezbollah or Turkey. Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased military activity on both sides, including confirmed missile strikes; 2) Official statements from Iranian leaders outlining escalation plans. Time horizon: 7 days to 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% probability Despite the escalating tensions, a fragile de-escalation process will likely continue. Over the next 14 days, diplomatic channels remain open for communication and negotiations between Iran and Israel. However, this co (8% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% probability Following Israel's attacks on Iranian targets, tensions are expected to escalate rapidly. Within 72 hours, Iran will likely retaliate with a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli cities and infrastructure. This could trigger a broader conflict in the region, potentially involving regional powers like Hezbollah or Turkey. Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased military activity on both sides, including confirmed missile strikes; 2) Official statements from Iranian leaders outlining escalation plans. Time horizon: 7 days to 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% probability Despite the escalating tensions, a fragile de-escalation process will likely continue. Over the next 14 days, diplomatic channels remain open for communication and negotiations between Iran and Israel. However, this co (4% model probability, not a guarantee)