Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military campaign in Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with NATO countries. This could include missile strikes on Ukrainian cities or a renewed offensive within the eastern Donbas region. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of increased Russian military activity in Ukraine, including deployment of additional troops and heavy weaponry. A significant escalation in cyberattacks against Ukrainian government institutions and critical infrastructure. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Diplomatic efforts remain stalled due to conflicting positions between Ukraine and Russia, leading to a stalemate in negotiations for a ceasefire. Increased international pressure on both sides to reach an agreement c (77% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military campaign in Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with NATO countries. This could include missile strikes on Ukrainian cities or a renewed offensive within the eastern Donbas region. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of increased Russian military activity in Ukraine, including deployment of additional troops and heavy weaponry. A significant escalation in cyberattacks against Ukrainian government institutions and critical infrastructure. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Diplomatic efforts remain stalled due to conflicting positions between Ukraine and Russia, leading to a stalemate in negotiations for a ceasefire. Increased international pressure on both sides to reach an agreement c (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military campaign in Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and increasing troop deployments near the border with NATO countries. This could include missile strikes on Ukrainian cities or a renewed offensive within the eastern Donbas region. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of increased Russian military activity in Ukraine, including deployment of additional troops and heavy weaponry. A significant escalation in cyberattacks against Ukrainian government institutions and critical infrastructure. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Diplomatic efforts remain stalled due to conflicting positions between Ukraine and Russia, leading to a stalemate in negotiations for a ceasefire. Increased international pressure on both sides to reach an agreement c (6% model probability, not a guarantee)