S7/10Economic

Even a partial deal with Iran will help the slow journey to trade normality

The blockade has done less damage to oil prices and food production than many expected

22 Jun 2026, 11:31 UTCSource: FT WorldOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация56% model probability

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b

Confirmation indicators

  • US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво32% model probability

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b

Confirmation indicators

  • US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация12% model probability

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b

Confirmation indicators

  • US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b
Horizon: 7–30 days