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S7/10Economic

Even a partial deal with Iran will help the slow journey to trade normality

The blockade has done less damage to oil prices and food production than many expected

Source: FT WorldOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация

Partial deal with Iran leads to increased tensions between US and Iran. Tensions escalate, leading to further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This triggers a spike in crude oil prices, potentially reaching $120 per barrel by the end of July. Food production in affected regions (e.g., Middle East) may see a slight decrease due to rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: US imposes new sanctions on Iranian b

Horizon: 7–30 days

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