S8/10Geopolitical
Israel and Lebanon sign framework agreement after US-brokered talks
Previous ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have still seen near-daily cross-border strikes
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 50% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days