S8/10Geopolitical
How Lebanon and Iran’s war of words became backdrop for latest Israel war
Iran had warned that talks could be stopped and attacks would resume if Israel continued to hit Lebanon.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 77% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iran launches a confirmed ballistic missile strike targeting an Israeli military base in Lebanon.
- ◆Israel conducts a targeted air strike on a Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon within 72 hours of the initial Iranian attack.
- ◆A significant increase in cross
- ◆border rocket attacks from Lebanon towards Israel, with Hezbollah claiming responsibility for most.
Horizon: 10–14 days
B
Status quo— 17% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iran launches a confirmed ballistic missile strike targeting an Israeli military base in Lebanon.
- ◆Israel conducts a targeted air strike on a Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon within 72 hours of the initial Iranian attack.
- ◆A significant increase in cross
- ◆border rocket attacks from Lebanon towards Israel, with Hezbollah claiming responsibility for most.
Horizon: 10–14 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iran launches a confirmed ballistic missile strike targeting an Israeli military base in Lebanon.
- ◆Israel conducts a targeted air strike on a Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon within 72 hours of the initial Iranian attack.
- ◆A significant increase in cross
- ◆border rocket attacks from Lebanon towards Israel, with Hezbollah claiming responsibility for most.
Horizon: 10–14 days