Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches additional missile strikes against targets in Israel or Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions beyond initial ceasefire agreements. This leads to retaliatory action from Israel or Saudi Arabia, triggering a broader regional conflict involving other countries with historical ties to the region. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased military activity between Iran and Israel/Saudi Arabia, including air defense systems activation and potential missile launches. International condemnation of Iranian actions by major powers. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The initial threat of escalation leads to increased diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, with international pressure and negotiations between Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, a fragile ceasefire r (79% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches additional missile strikes against targets in Israel or Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions beyond initial ceasefire agreements. This leads to retaliatory action from Israel or Saudi Arabia, triggering a broader regional conflict involving other countries with historical ties to the region. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased military activity between Iran and Israel/Saudi Arabia, including air defense systems activation and potential missile launches. International condemnation of Iranian actions by major powers. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The initial threat of escalation leads to increased diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, with international pressure and negotiations between Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, a fragile ceasefire r (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran launches additional missile strikes against targets in Israel or Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions beyond initial ceasefire agreements. This leads to retaliatory action from Israel or Saudi Arabia, triggering a broader regional conflict involving other countries with historical ties to the region. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased military activity between Iran and Israel/Saudi Arabia, including air defense systems activation and potential missile launches. International condemnation of Iranian actions by major powers. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The initial threat of escalation leads to increased diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, with international pressure and negotiations between Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, a fragile ceasefire r (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Oil prices jump after Iran missiles threaten fragile ceasefire

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators