S7/10Economic
Fed’s Bowman Says Too Soon to Judge Iran War Inflation Impact
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said, “I would like to have more clarity on the economic impacts from the conflict in the Middle East and the durability of those effects,” and thinks it’s too soon to judge the inflationary impact from the Iran war. Bowman said Friday at a central banking conference in Iceland that that policymakers need to look through temporary price shocks. (Source: Bloomberg)
29 May 2026, 14:32 UTCSource: Bloomberg Markets
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 54% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity between Iran and Saudi Arabia with reports of escalation from multiple sources.
- ◆A significant spike in oil prices (over 15%) within the next week, exceeding pre
- ◆conflict levels.
- ◆A sudden increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 33% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity between Iran and Saudi Arabia with reports of escalation from multiple sources.
- ◆A significant spike in oil prices (over 15%) within the next week, exceeding pre
- ◆conflict levels.
- ◆A sudden increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 12% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity between Iran and Saudi Arabia with reports of escalation from multiple sources.
- ◆A significant spike in oil prices (over 15%) within the next week, exceeding pre
- ◆conflict levels.
- ◆A sudden increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes.
Horizon: 7–14 days