S6/10Geopolitical
NATO allies now assume more security responsibilities — Pentagon
Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby says Washington wants to see NATO as "an alliance of partnership, not dependency"
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days