S9/10Geopolitical
Iran's Ghalibaf says US tanker attack proves Washington rejects dialogue
Iran's Ghalibaf says US tanker attack proves Washington rejects dialogue Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says Washington’s latest actions show the US is “neither committed to a cease-fire nor believes in dialogue”. His comments came after US forces attacked a tanker they said was heading towards Iran in breach of Washington’s naval blockade. Ghalibaf said the attack showed the US “only understands the language of power”, sharpening Tehran’s criticism of Washington’s military pressure at sea. “We seek an end to the war and lasting security,” he said. “But we have no trust in the other party.”
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 84% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Iran's parliament passes a resolution authorizing military action within 72 hours of the attack; 2) Iran launches a ballistic missile strike on a US vessel or facility in the Persian Gulf within 10 days.
Horizon: 14–30 days
B
Status quo— 12% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Iran's parliament passes a resolution authorizing military action within 72 hours of the attack; 2) Iran launches a ballistic missile strike on a US vessel or facility in the Persian Gulf within 10 days.
Horizon: 14–30 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Iran's parliament passes a resolution authorizing military action within 72 hours of the attack; 2) Iran launches a ballistic missile strike on a US vessel or facility in the Persian Gulf within 10 days.
Horizon: 14–30 days