S9/10Geopolitical
New strikes, Trump walkout, peace deal in limbo: the latest on Iran
As Sunday marked 100 days since the United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran, hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough gave way to renewed violence. Iran and Israel exchanged fresh attacks and fighting intensified in Lebanon, even as US President Donald Trump remarked that Israel had no choice but to accept a potential deal after walking out of an interview on camera. Here are the key developments: Israel: missiles fired from Iran Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic missiles...
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 79% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1. Reports of significant damage to Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., power plants, hospitals) attributed to Iranian ballistic missiles.
- ◆2. Increased activity by Hezbollah in Lebanon, including increased drone attacks on Israeli targets.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 15% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1. Reports of significant damage to Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., power plants, hospitals) attributed to Iranian ballistic missiles.
- ◆2. Increased activity by Hezbollah in Lebanon, including increased drone attacks on Israeli targets.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1. Reports of significant damage to Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., power plants, hospitals) attributed to Iranian ballistic missiles.
- ◆2. Increased activity by Hezbollah in Lebanon, including increased drone attacks on Israeli targets.
Horizon: 7–14 days