S9/10Geopolitical
Iran carries out strikes on energy facilities in Israel’s Haifa — IRGC
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that enemy attacks on energy infrastructure could have dangerous consequences for the whole global economy
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 87% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations confirmed by multiple independent sources within 72 hours of the initial attack. US Treasury sanctions on Iran's financial sector are publicly announced and implemented. A UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks is adopted with a majority vote.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 9% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations confirmed by multiple independent sources within 72 hours of the initial attack. US Treasury sanctions on Iran's financial sector are publicly announced and implemented. A UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks is adopted with a majority vote.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations confirmed by multiple independent sources within 72 hours of the initial attack. US Treasury sanctions on Iran's financial sector are publicly announced and implemented. A UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks is adopted with a majority vote.
Horizon: 7–30 days