Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Nuclear states withdraw from disarmament negotiations, leading to renewed rhetoric and military exercises. Tensions rise in Eastern Europe as NATO deploys troops near Russian borders. The US and Russia conduct joint naval drills in the Pacific, escalating tensions further. Confirmation indicators: (1) Public statements by nuclear-armed states indicating a shift away from disarmament commitments; (2) Increased deployment of nuclear weapons to strategic locations. Time horizon: 30 days - 6 months. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The SIPRI study is largely ignored, with international efforts to address nuclear proliferation remaining stalled. Diplomatic channels remain open, and limited dialogue on disarmament occurs. A series of smaller-scale incidents involving military activity in sensitive areas (87% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Nuclear states withdraw from disarmament negotiations, leading to renewed rhetoric and military exercises. Tensions rise in Eastern Europe as NATO deploys troops near Russian borders. The US and Russia conduct joint naval drills in the Pacific, escalating tensions further. Confirmation indicators: (1) Public statements by nuclear-armed states indicating a shift away from disarmament commitments; (2) Increased deployment of nuclear weapons to strategic locations. Time horizon: 30 days - 6 months. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The SIPRI study is largely ignored, with international efforts to address nuclear proliferation remaining stalled. Diplomatic channels remain open, and limited dialogue on disarmament occurs. A series of smaller-scale incidents involving military activity in sensitive areas (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Nuclear states withdraw from disarmament negotiations, leading to renewed rhetoric and military exercises. Tensions rise in Eastern Europe as NATO deploys troops near Russian borders. The US and Russia conduct joint naval drills in the Pacific, escalating tensions further. Confirmation indicators: (1) Public statements by nuclear-armed states indicating a shift away from disarmament commitments; (2) Increased deployment of nuclear weapons to strategic locations. Time horizon: 30 days - 6 months. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The SIPRI study is largely ignored, with international efforts to address nuclear proliferation remaining stalled. Diplomatic channels remain open, and limited dialogue on disarmament occurs. A series of smaller-scale incidents involving military activity in sensitive areas (4% model probability, not a guarantee)