Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * Time Horizon: Within 1 week to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * Confirmation Indicators: A series of high-level meetings between the three countr (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * Time Horizon: Within 1 week to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * Confirmation Indicators: A series of high-level meetings between the three countr (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia escalates its military actions in Ukraine, possibly deploying new tactical weapons systems or increasing troop deployments near Ukrainian borders. This triggers a heightened risk of direct conflict escalation and increases the likelihood of NATO involvement. * Confirmation Indicators: Russia deploys long-range missile strikes within Ukraine's sovereign territory, followed by increased NATO military presence on its eastern flank. * Time Horizon: Within 1 week to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The UK, France and Germany continue diplomatic efforts to facilitate a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, progress is slow due to conflicting interests and distrust on both sides. * Confirmation Indicators: A series of high-level meetings between the three countr (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

UK, France, Germany back direct Ukraine-Russia talks: joint statement

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators