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S7/10Economic

An Open Strait of Hormuz Won’t Fix Gas Prices Overnight

Even if peace holds up between the US and Iran, oil prices aren’t going back down to where they were any time soon.

Source: WiredOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

US-Iran tensions escalate into direct military action or proxy conflict. A series of retaliatory strikes by either side against critical infrastructure in the region triggers a global energy crisis, leading to significant price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво

US-Iran tensions escalate into direct military action or proxy conflict. A series of retaliatory strikes by either side against critical infrastructure in the region triggers a global energy crisis, leading to significant price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация

US-Iran tensions escalate into direct military action or proxy conflict. A series of retaliatory strikes by either side against critical infrastructure in the region triggers a global energy crisis, leading to significant price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w

Horizon: 7–30 days

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