S7/10Economic

An Open Strait of Hormuz Won’t Fix Gas Prices Overnight

Even if peace holds up between the US and Iran, oil prices aren’t going back down to where they were any time soon.

19 Jun 2026, 09:30 UTCSource: WiredOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация50% model probability

US-Iran tensions escalate into direct military action or proxy conflict. A series of retaliatory strikes by either side against critical infrastructure in the region triggers a global energy crisis, leading to significant price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво37% model probability

US-Iran tensions escalate into direct military action or proxy conflict. A series of retaliatory strikes by either side against critical infrastructure in the region triggers a global energy crisis, leading to significant price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация14% model probability

US-Iran tensions escalate into direct military action or proxy conflict. A series of retaliatory strikes by either side against critical infrastructure in the region triggers a global energy crisis, leading to significant price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric from both sides, confirmed deployment of new military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, sudden spike in oil prices exceeding 10% w
Horizon: 7–30 days