S8/10Geopolitical
Israel halts strikes on Iran at Trump’s request, continues attacks on Lebanon — TV
According to earlier reports, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 77% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from both Iranian and Israeli leaders regarding military action. A spike in regional tensions marked by increased air traffic violations and potential for cross
- ◆border incidents.
Horizon: 7–21 days
B
Status quo— 17% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from both Iranian and Israeli leaders regarding military action. A spike in regional tensions marked by increased air traffic violations and potential for cross
- ◆border incidents.
Horizon: 7–21 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased rhetoric from both Iranian and Israeli leaders regarding military action. A spike in regional tensions marked by increased air traffic violations and potential for cross
- ◆border incidents.
Horizon: 7–21 days