Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US sanctions on Cuba intensify, leading to further restrictions on essential medical imports and increased economic hardship. Cuban government struggles to provide basic healthcare, resulting in a surge in preventable deaths among children. This escalation triggers diplomatic tensions between the US and Cuba, potentially escalating into a trade war or even military intervention by Cuba's allies. * Confirmation indicators: * Increased public outcry from human rights organizations regarding worsening humanitarian crisis in Cuba. * US Congress approves additional sanctions targeting Cuban healthcare infrastructure. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: UN pressure on the US to lift sanctions continues, with limited progress due to political and economic considerations (72% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US sanctions on Cuba intensify, leading to further restrictions on essential medical imports and increased economic hardship. Cuban government struggles to provide basic healthcare, resulting in a surge in preventable deaths among children. This escalation triggers diplomatic tensions between the US and Cuba, potentially escalating into a trade war or even military intervention by Cuba's allies. * Confirmation indicators: * Increased public outcry from human rights organizations regarding worsening humanitarian crisis in Cuba. * US Congress approves additional sanctions targeting Cuban healthcare infrastructure. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: UN pressure on the US to lift sanctions continues, with limited progress due to political and economic considerations (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US sanctions on Cuba intensify, leading to further restrictions on essential medical imports and increased economic hardship. Cuban government struggles to provide basic healthcare, resulting in a surge in preventable deaths among children. This escalation triggers diplomatic tensions between the US and Cuba, potentially escalating into a trade war or even military intervention by Cuba's allies. * Confirmation indicators: * Increased public outcry from human rights organizations regarding worsening humanitarian crisis in Cuba. * US Congress approves additional sanctions targeting Cuban healthcare infrastructure. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: UN pressure on the US to lift sanctions continues, with limited progress due to political and economic considerations (8% model probability, not a guarantee)