Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel escalate to include increased missile attacks and potential drone deployments, further escalating tensions in the region. Israel responds with a heightened military presence near Iranian borders, potentially including air strikes on Iranian military facilities. This escalation could lead to increased regional instability and a surge in global oil prices as markets become uncertain. * Confirmation indicators: Iran launches additional ballistic missiles towards Israel within 24-72 hours of initial strikes. Israel announces the deployment of new military units near Iranian borders, and international media reports confirm heightened tensions. * Time horizon: 1 week to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The immediate tension between Iran and Israel r (82% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel escalate to include increased missile attacks and potential drone deployments, further escalating tensions in the region. Israel responds with a heightened military presence near Iranian borders, potentially including air strikes on Iranian military facilities. This escalation could lead to increased regional instability and a surge in global oil prices as markets become uncertain. * Confirmation indicators: Iran launches additional ballistic missiles towards Israel within 24-72 hours of initial strikes. Israel announces the deployment of new military units near Iranian borders, and international media reports confirm heightened tensions. * Time horizon: 1 week to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The immediate tension between Iran and Israel r (13% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel escalate to include increased missile attacks and potential drone deployments, further escalating tensions in the region. Israel responds with a heightened military presence near Iranian borders, potentially including air strikes on Iranian military facilities. This escalation could lead to increased regional instability and a surge in global oil prices as markets become uncertain. * Confirmation indicators: Iran launches additional ballistic missiles towards Israel within 24-72 hours of initial strikes. Israel announces the deployment of new military units near Iranian borders, and international media reports confirm heightened tensions. * Time horizon: 1 week to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The immediate tension between Iran and Israel r (5% model probability, not a guarantee)