Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Armenia's internal political polarization intensifies as Pashinyan's government faces increasing pressure from both pro-Russian and pro-Western factions. This leads to a surge in anti-government protests and calls for regime change, potentially escalating into armed conflict with Russia or other regional powers. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in violent clashes between protestors and security forces within Armenia, coupled with heightened rhetoric from both the Russian and Western governments regarding their respective interests in the country. * Time horizon: Within 60 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Armenia navigates a period of political instability marked by continued internal tensions, economic vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical anxieties. However, P (69% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Armenia's internal political polarization intensifies as Pashinyan's government faces increasing pressure from both pro-Russian and pro-Western factions. This leads to a surge in anti-government protests and calls for regime change, potentially escalating into armed conflict with Russia or other regional powers. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in violent clashes between protestors and security forces within Armenia, coupled with heightened rhetoric from both the Russian and Western governments regarding their respective interests in the country. * Time horizon: Within 60 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Armenia navigates a period of political instability marked by continued internal tensions, economic vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical anxieties. However, P (23% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Armenia's internal political polarization intensifies as Pashinyan's government faces increasing pressure from both pro-Russian and pro-Western factions. This leads to a surge in anti-government protests and calls for regime change, potentially escalating into armed conflict with Russia or other regional powers. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in violent clashes between protestors and security forces within Armenia, coupled with heightened rhetoric from both the Russian and Western governments regarding their respective interests in the country. * Time horizon: Within 60 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Armenia navigates a period of political instability marked by continued internal tensions, economic vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical anxieties. However, P (9% model probability, not a guarantee)