Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran launches a series of ballistic missile strikes at Israel's military infrastructure in response to alleged Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Syria. The strikes could include long-range missiles, potentially impacting strategic military sites and communication networks. This escalation would trigger retaliatory measures from Israel, including air strikes against Iranian targets within Syria and possibly a broader regional conflict involving other nations with interests in the region. * Increased tensions between Iran and Israel as evidenced by public statements from both sides. * Reports of increased activity from Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces near the Syrian border. * Confirmation of Israeli air strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria by independent sources. (72% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran launches a series of ballistic missile strikes at Israel's military infrastructure in response to alleged Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Syria. The strikes could include long-range missiles, potentially impacting strategic military sites and communication networks. This escalation would trigger retaliatory measures from Israel, including air strikes against Iranian targets within Syria and possibly a broader regional conflict involving other nations with interests in the region. * Increased tensions between Iran and Israel as evidenced by public statements from both sides. * Reports of increased activity from Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces near the Syrian border. * Confirmation of Israeli air strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria by independent sources. (21% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Iran launches a series of ballistic missile strikes at Israel's military infrastructure in response to alleged Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Syria. The strikes could include long-range missiles, potentially impacting strategic military sites and communication networks. This escalation would trigger retaliatory measures from Israel, including air strikes against Iranian targets within Syria and possibly a broader regional conflict involving other nations with interests in the region. * Increased tensions between Iran and Israel as evidenced by public statements from both sides. * Reports of increased activity from Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces near the Syrian border. * Confirmation of Israeli air strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria by independent sources. (8% model probability, not a guarantee)

FirstFT: Iran launches missiles at Israel for first time since ceasefire

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators